I’m now calling the Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex Special Illustration Rare (281/217) from Ascended Heroes a safe buy. Sales volume has picked up a lot over the past week, and I think this is the bottom.
I’m not there yet on the set’s two biggest chases. I think Mega Gengar ex and the Pikachu ex collectors call “Treekachu” still have about another 10% to drop from current prices, so I’m holding off on both.
Where Mewtwo Stands Now
Recent sales as of November 14 put the ungraded Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex at $172.50 and a PSA 10 at $422.55. According to PokeInsider’s Card Data (November 13, TCGplayer Near Mint market price), the raw card is down 5.4% over the last 7 days and 30.2% over the last 30 days. That means it was trading around $246 a month ago.
The drop has been steady. Raw copies sold on eBay on November 12 ranged from $133.50 to $199.99. PokeInsider’s Card Data counts 62 sales over the last 30 days, so this card trades often.
The card is one of the better-looking ones in the set. Mitsuhiro Arita, the illustrator behind the original Base Set Charizard, drew Giovanni standing in front of a towering Mewtwo. Team Rocket nostalgia, a top-tier Pokémon and a legendary artist on one card make for strong long-term collector demand.
Why I Think This Is the Bottom
In my experience, singles and sealed usually hit their lowest prices around month 8 after release. According to The Pokémon Company, Ascended Heroes launched on January 30, 2026. The main wave, including the Elite Trainer Boxes, followed on February 20, per TCGplayer’s buyer’s guide. Either way, the set is now right in that window.
The second signal is volume. Over the past week, buying activity on this card has picked up a lot. When the price is still slipping but more copies are changing hands, it usually means buyers are stepping in at these levels and soaking up the sellers who wanted out.
Sealed is starting to show the same flattening. According to PokeInsider’s sealed data (TCGplayer market price, November 13):
- The standard Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box sits at $125.45. That’s up 2.8% over 7 days after falling 26.6% over 90 days. Its MSRP was $49.99, per distributor listings.
- The Booster Bundle is at $76.14, up 2.3% over 7 days after an 8.3% drop over 30 days.
- The Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box is still sliding at $310.51, down 4.3% on the week.
That’s not a clean turn yet, but the retail-level products have stopped falling for now.
Raw vs. Graded: The Full Price Ladder
Here is where Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex sells across grades, based on recent sold prices as of November 14:
The gap that matters is between PSA 9 and PSA 10. A PSA 9 sells for just $14.53 more than a raw copy, while a PSA 10 sells for about 2.45 times raw. Grading this card only pays off if it gets a 10.
Should You Grade It?
PSA’s Value tier costs $39.99 for cards valued up to $500, with a turnaround of 90-100 business days. A $172.50 raw copy plus that fee comes to about $212.49 before shipping. That leaves roughly $210 of room if it comes back a PSA 10, and a loss of about $25 if it comes back a PSA 9.
The gem rate has been high. According to PSA’s population report (latest monthly census), PSA has graded 11,160 copies:
- PSA 10: 7,434 (about 67%)
- PSA 9: 3,364 (about 30%)
- PSA 8 and below: 362 (about 3%)
If you multiply those odds by current sold prices, the average graded copy works out to about $343, well above the $212 cost. Keep in mind that people pre-screen what they submit, so your own odds depend on the centering and surface of the copy in your hand.
Two other options are worth weighing:
- TAG: Base grading is $39.95 with a 60 business day turnaround, and a TAG 10 sells for $395.39. That’s only about $27 under a PSA 10, and you get it back a month sooner.
- CGC: Bulk is $17, but a CGC 10 sells for only $202.50, about $13 more than raw plus the fee. It’s not worth it on this card.
The biggest risk on the graded side is supply. PSA’s population report shows the graded count jumped from 3,716 in the September census to 11,160 in October, about three times as many in one month. Many of those new PSA 10s will come to market, and that could hold down the PSA 10 price even if raw has bottomed.
Why I’m Still Waiting on Mega Gengar and Treekachu
The two most expensive SIRs in the set have not cooled off enough for me. Here’s how they compare with Mewtwo, according to PokeInsider’s Card Data (November 13):
I believe both still have about another 10% to fall. From today’s raw prices, that would put Mega Gengar near $560 and Treekachu near $515.
Mega Gengar is the clearest case. It lost 12.4% in the last week alone, more than twice Mewtwo’s weekly drop, and it has the fewest sales of the three. That’s a card still finding its floor.
Treekachu’s weekly drop is smaller. But at $572.75 raw it still carries a big premium. That premium was built on the run TCGplayer pointed to earlier this year, when it said collector demand for Pokémon “cameo” art kept pushing the card higher.
Both are hard pulls. Per TCGplayer’s pull-rate data, a Special Illustration Rare shows up about once every 70 packs, and the odds of pulling the Mega Gengar SIR in any given pack are about 0.07%. Scarcity is why these two will hold collector interest long term. It isn’t a reason to pay up before the drop is finished.
The Risks
- The month-8 pattern is a tendency, not a rule. Sets bottom when sellers run out, and a big new release can pull money away and stretch out the slide.
- Mewtwo is still falling week over week. Card Data shows -5.4% over 7 days. Calling a bottom means buying before the chart turns up, so you may see some red after you buy.
- Graded supply is rising fast. The PSA population tripled in one census, which is a real headwind for PSA 10 prices.
- Print runs are unknown. The Pokémon Company does not publish print runs or reprint plans, so more product hitting shelves could slow any recovery.
- Condition spread is wide. Raw sales between $133.50 and $199.99 on a single day tell you condition matters. If you are buying raw, check centering and surface before you pay top of the range.
What I Am Doing
- Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex SIR (281/217): I am buying. Volume is up, the set is in the window where prices usually bottom, and raw is about 30% below where it was a month ago. I consider this a safe buy at current prices.
- Mega Gengar ex SIR (284/217): I am waiting. I believe another 10% comes off the current price first.
- Pikachu ex “Treekachu” SIR (276/217): I am waiting. Same call: I expect roughly another 10% off before I step in.
If you are buying Mewtwo to grade, the numbers favor PSA or TAG and the card only makes sense if you think your copy has a real shot at a 10. If you just want the card, a clean raw copy around today’s price is the move I am making.
What did you think?
