Delta Reign Price Call: Mega Rayquaza ex SIR Headed to $200, Raikou ex to $40, and Why I’d Grade Raikou Early

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Key Takeaways

• I expect the Delta Reign Mega Rayquaza ex SIR (138/103) to fall to $200 or lower over the next seven months, about a 40% drop from PriceCharting’s $336.21 raw price on November 9, 2026.
• I expect Raikou ex (136/103) to hit $40 fairly quickly, about a 54% drop from its $87.79 raw price.
• In roughly two weeks since prerelease weekend, Mega Rayquaza is already down about 48% and Raikou about 37%.
• On both cards a PSA 9 is worth only about 30% more than a raw copy, while a PSA 10 is worth about five times raw, so you are grading for the 10.
• I am waiting on Mega Rayquaza and on binder copies of Raikou, but I am buying clean, well-centered Raikou copies now and sending them to PSA fast.

The Mega Rayquaza ex Special Illustration Rare (138/103) from Delta Reign is falling fast, and I expect it to keep falling for the next seven months. I think it gets to $200, and maybe lower. Raikou ex (136/103) is a great card too, but I expect it to hit $40 fairly quickly.

That doesn’t mean you should do nothing. Look for gradable copies early. A $30 loss on the raw card is nothing if you can get it to PSA early enough.

Where Prices Stand Now

Delta Reign came out on November 6, 2026, with prerelease events starting October 24, according to TCGplayer. It’s the English version of the Japanese set Storm Emeralda and has 141 cards: 103 in the main set plus 38 secret rares. Those include six Special Illustration Rares and one gold Mega Hyper Rare.

Here is how the two cards in this call price out, according to PriceCharting as of November 9, 2026:

PokeInsider’s Card Data, which uses the TCGplayer Near Mint market price, has raw copies a bit lower as of November 9: $315.24 for Mega Rayquaza and $82.94 for Raikou. Mega Rayquaza is down 15.9% over the past 30 days on 59 recorded sales. The TCGplayer listing in my post showed Raikou at a $76.02 market price, with 25 listings starting at $80.

One thing stands out in that table. On both cards, a PSA 9 is worth only about 30% more than a raw copy, while a PSA 10 is worth about five times raw. With these two, you’re grading for the 10.

How Fast They Have Already Dropped

The drop started before the set was even out. Folio.fyi tracks median completed sales, and here is what it found for each week of the launch:

If you compare PriceCharting’s current raw price with folio.fyi’s prerelease-weekend median, Mega Rayquaza is down about 48% and Raikou about 37% in roughly two weeks. Folio.fyi also found that every one of the set’s top 10 cards sold for less in release week than in the week before.

Sealed product is falling too, which means more packs get opened and more copies reach the market. According to PokeInsider’s Card Data as of November 9 (TCGplayer market prices):

Booster boxes near $5.84 a pack keep people opening, and every box opened adds supply of both cards.

Why I Expect $200 and $40

From PriceCharting’s current raw prices, a $200 Mega Rayquaza would be about a 40% drop from $336.21. A $40 Raikou would be about a 54% drop from $87.79. I’m giving Mega Rayquaza about seven months to get there. I expect Raikou to get there sooner.

The Japanese market gives useful context, since Storm Emeralda came out on July 31, 2026, three months ahead of the English set. Folio.fyi reports that the Japanese Mega Rayquaza ex Special Art Rare lost about two thirds of its price in its first three months. As of November 7, the Japanese prints were selling for medians of $197 (Mega Rayquaza) and $38.24 (Raikou). That’s almost exactly where I expect the English cards to land.

That comparison doesn’t set a floor, though. Folio.fyi finds that English prints of this set sell for 2.0 to 3.2 times the Japanese versions of the same art, and English cards usually do carry a premium. The Japanese prices show how far a hyped Mega Rayquaza can fall once supply catches up. They don’t promise the English card will follow the same path.

The Early Grading Play on Raikou

This is the part of my post I most want readers to act on. Raw Raikou may keep losing value, but an early PSA 10 can be worth several times what it cost. Getting the card graded fast matters more than getting it cheap.

These are PSA’s current tiers that matter here, from PokeInsider’s grading calculator:

• PSA Value: $39.99 (cards valued up to $500), 90-100 business days
• PSA Priority: $79.99 (up to $1,500), 50-60 business days
• PSA Express: $199 (up to $2,500), 20-30 business days

Value is the cheapest, but 90-100 business days means a card sent this month comes back around spring 2027, and plenty of other PSA 10s will be on the market by then. Priority cuts that to roughly 10-12 weeks, and Express to roughly 4-6. Holidays can push those dates back.

This is the math for buying one raw Raikou at PriceCharting’s $87.79 and grading it, before shipping and selling fees:

That’s why I’m not worried about a $30 loss on the raw card. If raw Raikou falls to $40, a copy bought at today’s price loses about $48 as a raw card. One PSA 10 at today’s graded price covers that several times over. But this only works if the copy is clean enough to get a 10, and if it comes back from PSA while 10s are still scarce.

Mega Rayquaza has the same 5x ratio, but the stakes are bigger. Its $1,698.04 PSA 10 value is above the Priority cap, so it goes in at Express ($199). That makes the all-in cost about $535 on a $336.21 raw copy. A PSA 10 would clear about $1,163 before fees. A PSA 9 ($437.89) would lose about $97. On top of that, I expect raw Mega Rayquaza to fall another $136 or more.

The Risks

• The graded prices are early and thin. Folio.fyi had recorded no PSA 10 sale of either card as of November 7. PokeInsider’s Card Data shows a Raikou PSA 10 at $617.32 and a Mega Rayquaza PSA 10 at $2,134.89, well above PriceCharting’s figures. That gap shows prices haven’t settled. 
• PSA 10 prices will come down as more 10s get graded. Every week your card sits in the queue, more PSA 10s reach the market. A $454 PSA 10 today may not be $454 when your card comes back.
• Grading is not guaranteed. Centering, edges and surface decide whether you get a 10 or a 9. With these cards, a 9 barely covers the cost, or loses money on the faster tiers.
• My price targets could be wrong. Mega Rayquaza is the set’s mascot and its biggest chase for both collectors and players, and it has four versions in the set, according to TCGplayer. Pull rates aren’t known yet. Folio.fyi says the only early count, 152 packs, is too small to set odds. Demand could hold up better than I expect.
• Fees cut into your profit. Selling fees, shipping and insurance reduce every number in the tables above.

What I Am Doing

• Mega Rayquaza ex SIR (138/103): waiting. I expect it to keep falling over the next seven months, to $200 and possibly lower. At $336 raw, I won’t buy it to hold.
• Raikou ex SIR (136/103), raw for the binder: waiting. It’s a great card, but I expect it at $40 fairly quickly, so there’s no reason to pay $80 to $88 for it now.
• Raikou ex, gradable copies: buying early. I’m looking for clean, well-centered copies now and sending them to PSA fast. A $30 loss on the raw card is nothing if you get it graded early enough. Inspect every copy before buying, and skip anything off-center.