Mega Charizard X ex, the Special Illustration Rare #125 from Phantasmal Flames, is back under $600. It spent the last stretch testing $600 as its new floor, and that floor has now given way. My read is that it keeps sliding until it reaches $500.
The second part of the story is supply. I expect more gradable raw copies to start showing up as people leave the hobby. They don’t want to wait about four months for their cards to come back from grading. They want out now.
Where the Price Stands
According to PriceCharting, as of October 29, 2026, the ungraded Mega Charizard X ex #125 sits at $600.85, which is basically on top of the old support line. PriceCharting’s latest change figures show the raw price down $19.21 and the PSA 10 down $63.09.
The individual sales show the break more clearly than the blended average. PriceCharting’s sales log has near-mint copies selling on TCGplayer for $594.99 on October 21, $601.00 on October 22, $599.99 on October 25 and $555.00 on October 26. eBay sales over the same week mostly landed between $575 and $651. Buyers are no longer paying above $600 every time, and the lowest sales are now in the mid-$500s.
This is a long way from where the card started. According to Card Ladder’s PSA 10 tracker, PSA 10 copies once sold for as much as $2,304.08, and the first tracked PSA 10 sale was $1,982.87. PriceCharting’s PSA 10 price today is $1,275.
Raw vs. Graded: The Full Ladder
Here is how every grade lines up against the raw price, using PriceCharting prices as of October 29, 2026.
Two things stand out. First, a PSA 10 is worth about 2.1 times a raw copy. Second, a PSA 9 at $589.08 is worth less than a raw copy. Anything short of a 10 loses you money once grading fees come out. A raw copy’s price already assumes some chance that it grades a 10.
If raw falls to $500 and the PSA 10 stays at $1,275, the PSA 10 would be worth 2.55 times raw. That’s just arithmetic, not a forecast for the graded price. Graded prices have been falling with raw, and PSA 10s dropped faster this month.
Why the $600 Floor Broke
The simplest reason is supply. This is a modern chase card from a set that was printed heavily, and the graded supply has grown fast. Phantasmal Flames came out on November 14, 2025, with 130 cards: 94 in the main set plus 36 secret rares, according to Bulbapedia. Screen Rant reported on a TCGplayer pack-opening study that put this specific SIR at about 1 in 400 packs. That’s hard to pull from one booster box, but across the whole market it adds up to a lot of copies.
The graded numbers show how much supply there is. According to PSA population data compiled by PriceCharting:
- 47,654 copies graded by PSA in total
- 28,534 PSA 10s, a gem rate of about 60%
- 16,215 PSA 9s
- 1,603 CGC 10s out of 2,232 copies graded by CGC
The PSA count grew from 13,348 in March 2026 to 35,848 in June and 47,654 by August, per PriceCharting’s monthly history. PriceCharting’s PSA figure hasn’t changed since August. That may be a delay in the data rather than a real stop in grading, so treat it as a minimum.
With more than 28,000 PSA 10s out there, the PSA 10 isn’t scarce. Buyers know they can get another one tomorrow, so they don’t bid up.
Gradable Copies Are About to Hit the Market
The second part of my call is about who is selling. People leaving the hobby don’t want to tie up a $600 card for months while it sits at a grader. They want cash now, so they sell raw. That means more raw copies listed and more competition between sellers, and the price goes down.
The wait is real. Pregradecards’ 2026 turnaround tracker reported that PSA’s Regular turnaround jumped from 30-40 business days to 70-80 business days in August 2026. Add the time it takes PSA to receive and log a submission, plus shipping both ways, and a total wait of about four months is realistic for anyone not paying for a premium tier.
For buyers, these motivated sellers are where the opportunity is. Some of these raw copies will be clean and well centered. They come from people who simply don’t want to wait out the grading queue.
The Grading Math at These Prices
If you’re buying raw to grade, this is the rough math, using PSA’s population split as a guide:
- About 60% of PSA-graded copies came back a 10 ($1,275 on PriceCharting).
- About 34% came back a 9 ($589.08).
- About 5% came back an 8 ($547.50), and the rest lower.
Weighted by those percentages, a graded copy works out to about $995 before grading fees, shipping and selling fees. Bought at $600, that leaves a margin. Bought at $500, the margin is much bigger.
One big caveat: population reports reflect cards people chose to send in, and most collectors only submit their best copies. A random raw copy from someone leaving the hobby won’t grade like a hand-picked submission. Check centering, surface and edges in person or in detailed photos before you pay a grading-ready price.
Risks to Watch
- Graded prices are falling too. PSA 10 was down $63.09 in PriceCharting’s latest update. A grade-and-flip plan only works if the PSA 10 price holds up while your card sits in the queue.
- Supply of 10s keeps growing. Every submission that comes back adds more PSA 10s and more sellers.
- Turnaround times could change. Bleacher Nation reported on October 28 that PSA is bringing back its Value tier and cutting its estimated turnaround for the Priority and Standard tiers by 20 days. If waits get noticeably shorter, some sellers may decide to grade instead of selling raw. That would mean fewer cheap raw copies than I expect.
- Crossing below $500. My call is $500. If people keep leaving the hobby, nothing guarantees it stops there.
What I Am Doing
The $600 floor has broken, and I expect Mega Charizard X ex SIR #125 to keep falling to the $500 mark. I’m not treating $600 as support anymore.
- Buy: Not at $600. Patience pays here. Let the price come down to you and watch for clean copies from sellers who want out of the hobby.
- Hold: If you already own a sharp raw copy, PSA 9 money ($589.08) is below raw, so only grade it if you’re confident it’s a 10.
- Sell: If you need the cash or don’t want to ride the card down to $500, the current price is above my target.
- Grading: At $500 raw, the grading math looks much better. I’ll be looking for gradable copies as they start to show up.
