I am a full-blown buy on Mega Darkrai ex and Mega Greninja ex. These are the top chase cards of two current sets, and other top cards of the same two Pokémon sell for far more.
Greninja is the clearest example. The Greninja ex Special Illustration Rare (SIR) from Twilight Masquerade sells for about $227 raw, while the Mega Greninja ex SIR from Chaos Rising sells for about $106. The older card is dropping, but that is still a price difference of roughly 120%.
Where Prices Stand
The table shows raw and graded prices for the two SIRs, the gold Mega Hyper Rare versions of the same Pokémon, and the Twilight Masquerade Greninja for comparison.
The Mega Darkrai ex SIR and Greninja ex SIR rows are recent sold prices as of November 12, 2026. The other three rows are from PokeInsider’s Card Data as of November 11, 2026 (TCGplayer Near Mint market price for raw, sold prices for graded).
Every one of these cards is falling, according to PokeInsider’s Card Data:
The Greninja Gap
The Twilight Masquerade Greninja ex SIR sells for $227.50 raw against $105.66 for the Mega Greninja ex SIR. That makes the older card about 2.15 times the price, a gap of roughly 115%. On TCGplayer’s Near Mint market price for the older card ($235.11 in PokeInsider’s Card Data), the gap is about 122%.
The graded gap is almost the same. A PSA 10 of the Twilight Masquerade card sells for $610 against $282.58 for the Mega Greninja ex SIR, about 116% more.
The older card is coming down. It lost 27.7% in the last 30 days on only 45 sales, while the Mega Greninja ex SIR sold 332 copies over the same period. Even after that drop, it still costs more than double the newer card.
Darkrai Next to Other Darkrai Cards
Darkrai’s other top cards also sit well above the Mega Darkrai ex SIR, according to PokeInsider’s Card Data as of November 11:
These are much older cards from eras with far less supply, so they are not a like-for-like match. They do show what collectors pay for a top Darkrai card.
Inside Pitch Black, the Mega Darkrai ex SIR has no competition. The next most expensive SIR in the set, Morpeko ex, is $57.08 raw in PokeInsider’s Card Data. The Darkrai artwork is by Akira Egawa, per the card’s listing details.
Supply: Pull Rates and Sealed Prices
Both sets are new. Chaos Rising released on May 22, 2026 and Pitch Black on July 17, 2026, according to The Pokémon Company.
TCGplayer’s pull-rate studies put SIRs at about 1 in 80 packs for Pitch Black and 1 in 83 for Chaos Rising. The odds of one specific card are much longer:
- Mega Darkrai ex SIR: 0.21% per pack, or about 1 in 480 packs.
- Mega Greninja ex SIR: 0.20% per pack, or about 1 in 500 packs.
- Gold Mega Hyper Rares: about 0.09% per pack in Pitch Black (1 in 1,081 packs) and a reported 0.10% in Chaos Rising.
A Pitch Black booster box is $175.64, or $4.88 per pack, according to PokeInsider’s sealed data (TCGplayer market price, November 11). A Chaos Rising box is $182.36, or $5.07 per pack.
At those prices, opening 480 Pitch Black packs costs about $2,300, against $137.75 to buy the Darkrai SIR outright. Opening 500 Chaos Rising packs costs about $2,500, against $105.66 for the Greninja SIR.
The singles are cheap next to the cost of pulling them. But cheap boxes also mean both sets are still easy to find and still being opened. Pitch Black boxes are down 6.3% in 30 days and Chaos Rising boxes are down 2.5%.
Graded: Population and the Math
Because demand for these cards is so low, I am sure the graded population will end up much lower than what we have seen for other cards.
Here is where the counts stand, based on PSA population figures shown on recent graded listings:
- Mega Darkrai ex SIR: 2,057 PSA 10s, 1,386 PSA 9s and 192 PSA 8s, a gem rate of about 55%. A PSA 10 sold for $480 on November 8.
- Greninja ex SIR (Twilight Masquerade): about 10,160 PSA 10s out of roughly 23,500 graded by PSA, a gem rate of about 43%.
- Mega Greninja ex SIR: 280 CGC 10s. PSA count: 8,061.
The Darkrai has about a fifth of the PSA 10 population of the Twilight Masquerade Greninja. It has also had under four months to build that count, against more than two years for the 2024 card.
The Mega Darkrai ex SIR sells for 3.3 times raw in a PSA 10 and 1.3 times raw in a PSA 9. The Twilight Masquerade Greninja sells for 2.7 times raw in a PSA 10 and 1.2 times in a PSA 9.
For grading, PSA’s Value tier costs $39.99 for cards valued up to $500, with a 90-100 business day turnaround, per PokeInsider’s grading calculator. The math before selling fees and shipping:
A PSA 9 gets your money back on the Darkrai and loses a little on the Greninja. The profit is all in the 10.
CGC is the cheaper route. CGC Bulk is $17 with a 120+ business day wait, and a CGC 10 sells for $315 on the Darkrai SIR and $170.93 on the Greninja SIR.
One number needs a second look. The gold Mega Darkrai ex shows a PSA 10 price of $1,160, ten times its raw price and far above every other multiple in the table. Check the latest sold listings before you count on it.
The Risks
- Prices are still falling. All five cards are down over both 7 and 30 days. Buying now means buying into a decline.
- Both sets are in print. Boxes are near $175-$182 and slipping, so more copies are coming.
- The gap can close from the top. The Twilight Masquerade Greninja lost 27.7% in a month. If it keeps dropping, the 120% difference shrinks without the Mega Greninja moving.
- Low demand cuts both ways. It is why these cards are cheap and why I expect a small graded population. It also means there is no rush of buyers pushing prices up today.
- Graded supply is building. 2,057 PSA 10s of the Darkrai SIR in under four months is not a small number for a card this new.
What I Am Doing
I am buying. I am a full-blown buy on these cards, specifically the Mega Darkrai ex and the Mega Greninja ex.
My reasons are simple. Similar cards for the same Pokémon are much higher in value, with the Twilight Masquerade Greninja still about 120% above the Mega Greninja even while it drops. And with demand this low, I am sure the graded population will be much lower than what we have seen for other cards.
What did you think?
