Key Takeaways
- The Phantasmal Flames ETB sits at about $145 on PriceCharting as of November 5, 2026, close to three times its $49.99 MSRP.
- I am selling ETBs now because I expect another restock wave to push them under $100, then I plan to buy back in a few months.
- I am holding the Mega Charizard X ex SIR (#125), but with 28,534 PSA 10s and a gem rate near 60%, I am not adding more.
- I am starting to buy the gold Mega Hyper Rare (#130): only 1,425 of 12,769 graded copies are PSA 10, a gem rate of about 11%.
- The #130 is about $201 raw against $2,025 in PSA 10, while the #125 PSA 10 is only about 2x its $622.89 raw price.
I am selling my Phantasmal Flames Elite Trainer Boxes now. I expect another wave of product to hit the market fairly soon, and when it does, I think this ETB goes under $100. Take your profit now and buy back in a few months. I promise you will not be disappointed.
On the singles side, I am holding the Mega Charizard X ex Special Illustration Rare (#125). I am also starting to like the Mega Hyper Rare gold version (#130) as a buy. Its PSA 10 population is low, and I think it will do very well both raw and graded over time.
Where the ETB Stands Right Now
According to PriceCharting, the Phantasmal Flames Elite Trainer Box sits at $145 as of November 5, 2026. TCGplayer shows almost the same thing, with a market price of about $146.86 and a most recent sale around $147.55.
That is close to three times retail. The standard ETB carried an MSRP of $49.99, according to Card Chill, and the Pokémon Center version listed at $59.99 on Pokémon Center’s site. Phantasmal Flames launched on November 14, 2025, per Bulbapedia, so anyone who bought at retail is sitting on a large gain one year in.
The listings are already starting to crack. In the TCGplayer screenshot I shared, the lowest ETB listing was $91.97 against that roughly $146 market price. One cheap listing doesn’t set the market. But it does show some sellers are ready to go well below where the box has been trading.
Why I Think Sub-$100 Is Coming
My call is about supply. I believe another wave of Phantasmal Flames product is coming, and ETBs are where you feel a restock first. They’re the most widely stocked product at big-box retail, and they’re what casual buyers and flippers grab.
[VERIFY: any public source or retailer info on the timing of the next Phantasmal Flames restock wave]
This has happened to this exact box before. Earlier in 2026, The Game Store wrote that sealed Phantasmal Flames ETB prices went through a reset where supply surged, speculative demand cooled, and prices moved back toward retail levels. The box recovered from that dip to $145. A fresh wave can easily push it back down the same way.
The ETB vs. the Booster Box
The numbers also make the ETB look expensive next to the booster box. According to PriceCharting, the booster box sits at $375 for 36 packs, while the ETB is $145 for 9 packs.
You are paying about 55% more per pack in the ETB. Sleeves, dice, the Charcadet promo and the box itself account for some of that. But when a box carries that much premium over its packs, a supply hit usually takes the premium out first. If you hold ETBs as an investment, now is when I would sell. Locking in roughly 3x retail beats riding it down and waiting for it to come back.
Mega Charizard X ex #125 SIR: Hold
The Special Illustration Rare is the chase card of the set, and the prices show it. According to PriceCharting as of November 5, 2026, it sells for $622.89 ungraded and $1,275 in PSA 10.
The most important figure for this card is its population. PriceCharting’s population report, which pulls PSA data monthly, shows 28,534 PSA 10s out of 47,654 copies graded. That’s a gem rate close to 60%. PSA 9s add another 16,215.
That explains an odd thing in the price table: the raw card ($622.89) is selling above a PSA 9 ($552.76). Raw buyers are paying for a better-than-even chance at a 10. Graded, a PSA 10 is only about 2x raw, which is a thin premium for a Charizard. A big supply of 10s keeps a lid on it.
I am not selling this card. It is the main Charizard from a modern set and it holds value well. But with nearly 30,000 PSA 10s out there, I am holding it, not adding more.
Mega Charizard X ex #130 MHR: Starting to Buy
The gold Mega Hyper Rare is where I see the opportunity. According to PriceCharting as of November 5, 2026, it is $201.22 ungraded, $261.11 in PSA 9 and $2,025 in PSA 10.
Compare that with the SIR. The gold card costs about a third as much raw, but a PSA 10 of it sells for more than a PSA 10 of the SIR. The PSA 10 is about 10x the raw price, versus about 2x for the SIR.
Prices from PriceCharting as of November 5, 2026.
The population explains the gap. According to PriceCharting’s population report, PSA has graded 12,769 copies of #130 and only 1,425 came back PSA 10. That’s a gem rate of about 11%, compared with about 60% for the SIR. Most copies land at PSA 9 (7,246) or PSA 8 (3,524). Gold textured cards tend to show edge and surface flaws, and the grading results bear that out.
In total, there are about 20 PSA 10s of the SIR for every PSA 10 of the gold card. Yet the gold card’s raw price is a third of the SIR’s. That’s the gap I want to own.
Raw or graded?
I like both, for different reasons.
- Raw: At about $201, the raw card is the cheap way in. Raw copies are what get submitted to grading, so a low PSA 10 count means steady demand from people chasing the 10.
- Graded: A PSA 10 at $2,025 is a bet on the 10 staying scarce. Every new 10 dilutes it, but at an 11% gem rate, the 10 count grows slowly.
If you grade it yourself, be honest about the odds. Roughly nine out of ten graded copies have missed a 10 so far, and a PSA 9 is only about $60 over raw. PSA’s fees have also moved around this year. CardGrade.io reports the Value tier reopened on October 29 at $39.99 per card, with Standard at $59.99 and Priority at $79.99. Check PSA’s site before you submit. Grading only pays here if your copy is clean under a light.
The Risks
- Restock timing. If the next wave comes later than I expect, or smaller, the ETB could stay near $145 for a while. Selling now means missing any further rise.
- More product means more singles. A restock opens more packs, which means more raw #125 and #130 copies and more grading submissions. That is part of why I am holding the SIR, not chasing it.
- Population data lags. PriceCharting’s PSA figures for both cards have not changed since its August update, so the real counts are probably higher today. [VERIFY: current PSA 10 population for #130 and #125 on PSA’s pop report]
- Grading odds. An 11% gem rate cuts both ways. It’s why the PSA 10 is scarce, and it’s why submitting your own raw copy is a gamble.
What I Am Doing
- Selling: Phantasmal Flames Elite Trainer Boxes, now, while they are around $145. I expect them to drop under $100 once the next wave lands. Then I plan to buy back in a few months.
- Holding: Mega Charizard X ex #125 SIR. It’s a strong card, but the big PSA 10 population limits the graded upside, so I am not adding at these prices.
- Starting to buy: Mega Charizard X ex #130 Mega Hyper Rare, both raw and graded. The PSA 10 count is low, the gem rate is tough, and raw is still about $200. I think it does very well over time.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much is a Phantasmal Flames Elite Trainer Box worth?
PriceCharting has the Phantasmal Flames ETB at $145 as of November 5, 2026, and TCGplayer shows a market price of about $146.86. The standard ETB had an MSRP of $49.99, and the Pokémon Center version listed at $59.99.
Should I sell my Phantasmal Flames ETBs?
I am selling mine now. I expect another wave of product soon, and I think the ETB drops under $100 when it lands. Locking in roughly 3x retail beats riding it down, and I plan to buy back in a few months.
Is the Phantasmal Flames ETB or booster box better value?
The booster box is better value per pack. PriceCharting has the booster box at $375 for 36 packs and the ETB at $145 for 9 packs, so you pay about 55% more per pack in the ETB.
What is the PSA 10 gem rate for the gold Mega Charizard X ex #130?
PriceCharting’s population report shows 1,425 PSA 10s out of 12,769 graded copies, a gem rate of about 11%. Most copies land at PSA 9 (7,246) or PSA 8 (3,524), because gold textured cards tend to show edge and surface flaws.
Is the Mega Charizard X ex SIR #125 worth grading?
The #125 has a gem rate close to 60%, with 28,534 PSA 10s out of 47,654 graded copies. A PSA 10 sells for $1,275 against $622.89 raw, only about 2x, so the large supply of 10s keeps a lid on the graded premium.
What did you think?
