Raw copies of the Mega Charizard X ex Special Illustration Rare (#125) from Phantasmal Flames keep slipping. PSA 10s have stopped falling for now, but I don’t think the bottom is in. I expect PSA 10 copies to drop to about $1,100, and probably a little below that, as we head into another Phantasmal Flames release.
If you want this card right now, the buy is Beckett Pristine 10s and CGC Pristine 10s. On everything else, raw and PSA 10 included, I am waiting.
Where Prices Stand
According to PriceCharting as of November 4, 2026, an ungraded copy sells for $601.30 and a PSA 10 for $1,262.50. The PSA 10 price moved only $2.27 in PriceCharting’s latest update. That’s what I mean by stalled.
A live sale backs that up. On November 2, an eBay auction from PROBSTEIN sold a PSA 10 for $1,250 plus $8 shipping after 51 bids. That sits right on top of the PriceCharting number.
One number stands out. A Grade 9 at $560 costs $41.30 less than a raw copy. Buyers are paying a raw premium because they hope for a 10. If you pull one and it grades a 9, you’ve lost money on the slab.
How Far This Card Has Already Fallen
This card has been sliding for most of the year. Fanatics Collect’s sales history shows PSA 10s selling for $1,798 in late December 2025 and $2,025 in late January 2026. One sold for $3,300 on April 23, 2026. Against that April sale, today’s $1,262.50 is roughly 62% lower.
Card Ladder’s PSA 10 tracker tells a similar story. It logged more than 600 sales, a high of $2,304.08 and a recent value of $1,227.75. Raw copies are falling too. Earlier card-price snapshots, including one from Chase Season a few months ago, put raw copies around $719. Raw now sits at $601.30.
My target of $1,100 for a PSA 10 is about $162.50, or 13%, below today’s PriceCharting price. I also think it could go a little lower than that.
Why the PSA 10 Price Has More Room to Fall
The biggest factor is supply. There are about 35,000 PSA 10 copies of this card. With that many slabs in circulation, a PSA 10 is not scarce. Anyone who wants one can buy one any day of the week.
The second factor is more product. We are approaching another Phantasmal Flames release. More packs mean more pulls, more submissions and more PSA 10s hitting a market that is already full of them.
The set is easy to open in volume. Phantasmal Flames released on November 14, 2025, with 130 cards (94 in the main set plus 36 secret rares), per Bulbapedia. When PokeBeach revealed it, they called it the smallest English set in years. A TCGplayer study of more than 5,000 packs, summarized by TCG Protectors, found a Special Illustration Rare in about 1 in 80 packs. That rate covers every SIR in the set, not just this Charizard. Even so, a small set with a reachable SIR rate means steady supply for the most-wanted card in it.
The Case for Pristine 10s
This is where the population gap matters. There are only 390 CGC Pristine 10s, compared with about 35,000 PSA 10s. That works out to roughly one CGC Pristine 10 for every 90 PSA 10s.
CGC Pristine 10 is CGC’s grade above its regular Gem Mint 10. The CGC 10 line on PriceCharting ($913.32) is most likely the regular Gem Mint grade, not Pristine. Don’t mix the two up when you shop. Card Ladder lists CGC 10 Pristine as its own card. An earlier snapshot showed a population of 366 and a value of $1,838.40. The population went from 366 to 390, which tells you new Pristine 10s are slow to show up.
Beckett’s Pristine 10 is the gold-label BGS 10, which ranks below the Black Label. According to PriceCharting, a BGS 10 trades at $2,563.32, about 2x a PSA 10. I think those prices are high because those grades are hard to get, and they are harder to flood with new supply than PSA 10s. That’s why they are the only versions of this card I would buy right now.
Raw vs. Graded: Should You Grade Your Own?
At today’s prices, the gap between a raw copy and a PSA 10 is $661.20, or 2.1x. That looks attractive until you account for fees and outcomes:
- Grading cost: $79.99
- The 9 risk: A PSA 9 sells below raw, so anything less than a 10 loses money.
- Timing risk: If PSA 10s fall to $1,100 or lower while your card is at the grader, the spread you were counting on shrinks.
Pristine grades from CGC and Beckett pay much better, but only if your card is close to perfect. A standard 10 from SGC or TAG trades about level with a PSA 10 (about $1,254 and $1,241 on PriceCharting), so those don’t give you any extra value.
Risks to My Call
- The stall could hold. PSA 10s have stopped dropping. If demand picks up before the next release, $1,100 may not come.
- Pristine buyers are a small group. Fewer people shop for CGC and Beckett Pristine slabs than for PSA 10s, so resale can take longer and price swings can be bigger.
- Pristine populations will grow. More product means more submissions. That applies to Pristine grades too, just at a much slower rate than PSA 10s.
What I Am Doing
- Buying: Beckett Pristine 10s and CGC Pristine 10s. With only 390 CGC Pristine 10s against about 35,000 PSA 10s, the scarcity sits in those grades.
- Waiting: PSA 10s. I expect them to drop to around $1,100, and probably a bit lower, as the next Phantasmal Flames release approaches.
- Waiting: Raw copies. They are still ticking down, and a raw copy costs more than a PSA 9.
If you have to own this card today, buy a Pristine slab. For everything else, be patient and let the next Phantasmal Flames release bring prices down.
What did you think?
