Key Takeaways
- The Shining Fates Elite Trainer Box sells for $132.50 on PriceCharting as of October 28, 2026, only $3.53 more than the Ascended Heroes ETB at $128.97.
- I am buying Shining Fates ETBs: the heavy print run is already priced in, while Ascended Heroes is still in print and being restocked.
- Shiny Charizard VMAX #SV107 sits at $99.99 raw with 167 TCGplayer listings, and I am waiting because I think it could dip under $100.
- PSA has graded 35,078 Shiny Charizard VMAX copies as PSA 10 out of 46,664, which keeps the PSA 10 premium low at 2.39 times raw.
- With PSA’s Value tiers paused and Regular grading at $79.99 per card, I would rather buy a slab than grade Shiny Vault cards myself.
I think Shining Fates sealed is underpriced. Its Elite Trainer Box, a 2021 product, now sells for about the same as an Ascended Heroes ETB, and Ascended Heroes is a 2026 set that will stay in print for a good while yet. A lot of Shining Fates was printed, but at these prices I am buying ETBs.
Shiny Charizard VMAX is a different story. I like the card long term, but I am not buying it yet. More than 150 copies are listed for sale, there aren’t many buyers, and I think it could dip under $100 in the next few months as sellers get desperate.
The sealed price gap that isn’t there
According to PriceCharting as of October 28, 2026, the Shining Fates Elite Trainer Box sells for $132.50 and the Ascended Heroes ETB for $128.97. That’s a gap of $3.53, under 3%, between a product that’s more than five years old and one that came out this year.
Shining Fates came out on February 19, 2021, according to Pokémon Wizard’s set tracker. It has a 73-card main set plus a 122-card Shiny Vault subset. According to TCGplayer’s product page, each ETB holds 10 Shining Fates booster packs, an Eevee VMAX foil promo and the usual accessories. At PriceCharting’s $132.50, that works out to about $13.25 a pack.
Ascended Heroes is still new and still being restocked. The Pokémon Company lists its release date as January 30, 2026, with more than 290 cards. Notebookcheck reported that in January, a month before the ETB shipped, TCGplayer had it at $117.82 against its $49.99 retail price. In October, Pokémon Center made its exclusive Ascended Heroes ETB invite-only through emailed links. Superhero Empire reported that three new Ascended Heroes tins arrived on August 28 at $21.99 each. A set that keeps getting restocked is a set where buyers can wait for supply.
Why I am buying Shining Fates ETBs
My reasoning is simple. If I’m paying roughly $130 for an ETB either way, I’d rather own the one from a set that already has more than five years of history than the one that’s still being printed and restocked.
Shining Fates was printed in big numbers, and I’m not pretending otherwise. That’s the main reason it isn’t at $300. But a heavy print run is already priced in at $132.50. The Ascended Heroes ETB, at $128.97, is priced as if its supply is tight, and supply on a set still in print tends to keep coming.
The Shiny Vault also gives these packs something to chase. Pokémon Wizard’s tracker shows Shiny Vault card prices down 69.5% from their all-time level and down 1.7% over the last 30 days. Singles have already taken most of their correction, so I don’t see much downside left in what you can pull.
Shiny Charizard VMAX: where prices stand
Charizard VMAX #SV107 is the Shiny Vault’s chase card. These are PriceCharting’s prices as of October 28, 2026:
The card is right on the $100 line. PriceCharting’s ungraded figure is $99.99. In my TCGplayer screenshot it showed a $110.08 market price, 167 listings and a lowest listing of $64.99. I see that as a lot of copies chasing a small number of buyers.
A PSA 10 sells for 2.39 times the raw price. A PSA 9 at $115.46 is only about 15% above raw, which tells you buyers care about a 10 or a raw copy and little in between.
A giant PSA 10 population
The premium is low for a Charizard because there are so many 10s. According to PriceCharting’s population page, which pulls PSA and CGC data monthly, PSA has graded 35,078 copies as PSA 10 out of 46,664 total. That’s about 75% of all PSA submissions. A further 8,936 copies are PSA 9s. With CGC included, the two companies have graded 54,303 copies, 39,146 of them 10s.
That 75% isn’t the chance that a random pack-fresh copy grades a 10. People submit their best copies. But it does mean PSA 10 slabs are easy to find, and that caps how far the grading premium can stretch.
Grading math is worse right now
Grading is pricier than usual. On May 29, 2026, PSA announced it would pause its Value, Value Bulk, Value Plus and Value Max tiers from June 2 to work through a 10-million-card backlog. Hoodcar reported in mid-October that the cheaper tiers were still paused and that PSA’s Regular tier costs $79.99 per card.
At those prices, a raw copy at $99.99 plus $79.99 Regular grading costs about $180 before shipping. A PSA 10 at $239 leaves roughly $59 of margin before selling fees. A PSA 9 at $115.46 loses money. For most people, buying the slab beats grading this card yourself until the cheaper tiers come back.
The other Shiny Vault cards in the screenshot
Charizard isn’t the only card with a big gap between raw and graded prices. Several smaller shinies carry much bigger PSA 10 multipliers, according to PriceCharting as of October 28:
Suicune is the standout. A PSA 10 sells for more than ten times a raw copy, against 2.4 times for Charizard. I haven’t pulled population counts for these cards, so the reason could be lower gem rates or fewer submissions. With Regular grading at $79.99, only Suicune clearly clears the grading cost on a 10.
Risks
- Supply on both sides. Shining Fates was printed in large numbers, so the ETB won’t run up quickly. If more Ascended Heroes restocks arrive, its ETB price could fall. That wouldn’t hurt Shining Fates, but the price gap I’m buying on could close from the other side.
- Sealed premiums vary by platform. PriceCharting has the ETB at $132.50 and my TCGplayer screenshot showed $140.90. Shop around before you pay the higher number.
- Charizard supply. With 167 TCGplayer listings and more than 35,000 PSA 10s, there’s no shortage of this card raw or graded. If buyers don’t show up, sellers have to cut prices.
- Grading costs. Until PSA’s Value tiers come back, graded upside on every Shiny Vault card gets squeezed by $79.99-per-card Regular pricing.
What I Am Doing
- Shining Fates Elite Trainer Box: buying. At $132.50 per PriceCharting, it costs the same as an Ascended Heroes ETB that will be in print for some time. To me that’s a no-brainer.
- Shiny Charizard VMAX #SV107: waiting. I like this card, but there are more than 150 copies listed and not many buyers. I think it could drop under $100 within the next few months, so I’m holding off for now.
- Grading Shiny Vault cards: skipping for now. With PSA’s cheap tiers paused, I’d rather buy a slab than pay $79.99 to grade one.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much is a Shining Fates Elite Trainer Box worth?
According to PriceCharting as of October 28, 2026, the Shining Fates Elite Trainer Box sells for $132.50. My TCGplayer screenshot showed $140.90, so prices vary by platform and it pays to shop around.
Is the Shining Fates ETB worth buying?
I am buying. It costs about the same as an Ascended Heroes ETB, a 2026 set that is still in print and being restocked. Shining Fates was printed in big numbers, but I think that is already priced in at $132.50.
What comes in a Shining Fates Elite Trainer Box?
According to TCGplayer’s product page, each ETB holds 10 Shining Fates booster packs, an Eevee VMAX foil promo and the usual accessories. At $132.50, that works out to about $13.25 a pack.
How much is Shiny Charizard VMAX worth?
PriceCharting has Charizard VMAX #SV107 at $99.99 ungraded, a PSA 9 at $115.46 and a PSA 10 at about $239 as of October 28, 2026. I am waiting to buy because more than 150 copies are listed and I think it could drop under $100 in the next few months.
Should I grade my Shiny Charizard VMAX?
Not right now, in my view. A raw copy at $99.99 plus $79.99 PSA Regular grading costs about $180 before shipping, which leaves roughly $59 of margin on a PSA 10 before fees, and a PSA 9 loses money. Until PSA’s cheaper tiers come back, buying the slab makes more sense.
