The Pokemon trading card market is cooling off. After months of climbing prices fueled by collector enthusiasm and new set releases, several high-value cards are experiencing significant corrections. If you’ve been waiting for better entry points on chase cards, November 2025 may be offering exactly that.
This analysis uses TCGPlayer Near Mint market prices tracked throughout November 2025, focusing on cards in the $50 to $800 range from sets released 2003 or later.
Mega Evolution Gold Cards Lead the Decline
The steepest drops belong to the Mega Evolution set’s gold Hyper Rares, released in September 2025. Mega Gardevoir ex Hyper Rare has fallen from roughly $541 to $369—a decline of nearly 32%. Mega Lucario ex followed a similar trajectory, dropping from $721 to $501, representing a 30.5% decrease.
These cards carry the most difficult pull rates in Pokemon TCG history, appearing in approximately 1 of every 1,260 packs. Yet even that extreme scarcity hasn’t insulated them from market correction. Analysts point to collectors shifting their attention toward the newly released Phantasmal Flames set, which debuted November 14 and features Mega Charizard X ex—a card many collectors prioritized over the current offerings.
Prismatic Evolutions Continues Its Descent
The popular Eeveelution-themed special set from January 2025 has seen several of its chase cards slide further from their early-year peaks.
Roaring Moon ex Special Illustration Rare dropped $60 to settle at $240.19. Market watchers have noted ongoing debate about whether this card deserves its premium pricing compared to traditional Eeveelution favorites. The Umbreon Master Ball Reverse Holo fell $20 to $65.86, reflecting what appears to be relative indifference from international collectors toward special reverse holo treatments—a preference that differs notably from the Japanese market.
One revealing data point: Sylveon ex SIR lost $40 during this period while Umbreon ex SIR actually gained $70. The market continues showing strong preference for Umbreon variants across multiple sets and eras.
Classic Sets Feel the Pressure
Even the beloved Evolving Skies set from August 2021 isn’t immune. Umbreon V Alternate Art, long considered one of the most desirable modern cards, shed $100 in a single month after its October surge. Dragonite V Alternate Art similarly declined $60.
These corrections follow a broader pattern. Sword & Shield era cards climbed an average of 42% between October 2024 and January 2025, peaked around March, and have since given back approximately 15% from those highs.
Scarlet & Violet 151 also saw meaningful pullbacks. The set’s flagship Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare dropped $60 to $246.76. Zapdos ex SIR fell $25 to $72.51, slipping below Blastoise after an earlier unexpected surge.
The Top 10 Drops at a Glance
What’s Driving the Correction?
Several factors are converging. The Pokemon Company printed 10.2 billion cards in 2025, increasing supply across the board. Elite Trainer Box reprints have reduced sealed product premiums by 15 to 20 percent. The Phantasmal Flames release on November 14 redirected collector spending. And Black Friday timing has added volatility as buyers weigh deals across the market.
Journey Together, one of the recent flagship sets, shows the trend clearly: every top card in the set lost value during November.
A Healthy Reset, Not a Collapse
Market analysts describe this as a healthy correction rather than a collapse. The fundamentals remain strong—collector interest is high, new sets continue generating excitement, and the 2026 30th anniversary celebrations may provide tailwinds for nostalgic cards.
That said, near-term corrections of 20 to 30 percent from 2025 peaks are expected to continue through the first quarter of 2026. For collectors looking to complete sets or acquire specific chase cards, the current environment may present favorable opportunities. For sellers hoping to maximize returns, patience through the holiday season volatility might prove wise.
The Pokémon TCG market is maturing. Price swings like these are increasingly normal as the market finds its footing between speculation and long-term collecting.
