The Pokémon card market is going through its biggest shakeup since the pandemic-era boom. Modern cards have dropped anywhere from 20 to 45 percent across the board, and if you’ve been waiting on the sidelines, now might be the time to pay attention.
This isn’t a market collapse. It’s a reset. Years of speculation-fueled pricing are giving way to something more grounded, and understanding what’s happening can help you make smarter decisions about what to buy—and what to avoid.
What’s Actually Happening
Walk into any Walmart or Target right now, and you’ll notice something unusual: Pokémon products are actually sitting on shelves. That alone tells the story.
The Pokémon Company printed 10.2 billion cards from April 2024 to March 2025. To put that in perspective, before 2019, annual production hovered around 1.5 to 2 billion cards. Roughly 60 percent of all Pokémon cards ever printed since 1996 have been produced in just the last five years.
When supply floods the market, prices fall. It’s that simple.
Prismatic Evolutions ETBs once commanded $400 from scalpers. They’re now hovering around $110. Journey Together ETBs dropped from $150 to $85. Even Phantasmal Flames booster boxes shed $30 within ten days of launch—the fastest price drop in over a year.
The Vintage vs. Modern Divide
Here’s where things get interesting for buyers. The market has split into two very different stories.
Vintage cards are holding strong. A complete 1st Edition Base Set in PSA 10 sold for over $900,000 in November 2025. First Edition Base Set Charizards in PSA 10 still trade around $264,000. These cards have genuine scarcity—PSA 10 populations often sit in single or double digits.
Modern graded cards are struggling. That unlimited Base Set Charizard PSA 10 that fetched $35,000 during the 2021 peak? It’s now around $13,000. Modern alternate arts with PSA 10 populations over 1,000 copies have dropped 30 to 50 percent from their highs.
The culprit is population explosion. PSA processed 15.3 million cards in 2024, with Pokémon representing nearly 60 percent of submissions. CGC matched its entire 2024 volume in just the first half of 2025. More graded copies keep entering circulation, and that steady supply crushes premiums.
Raw Singles: The Biggest Drops
If you’re looking at ungraded chase cards, you’re seeing the steepest discounts—and potentially the best opportunities.
The Prismatic Evolutions Umbreon ex SIR crashed from $1,600 to around $800-1,050. Surging Sparks’ Pikachu ex fell from $450 to roughly $200-330. The Mega Charizard X ex SIR from Phantasmal Flames dropped from $1,200 at launch to $550-750 within weeks.
There’s a growing gap between raw and graded prices that smart buyers should note. Raw Pikachu ex trades at $200-250 while the PSA 10 commands around $900. That 3-4x premium tells you the market increasingly rewards condition certainty.
What to Watch Before You Buy
Several forces are driving this correction, and they’re not going away soon:
Every new set features five to ten chase cards across Special Illustration Rares, Alternate Arts, and Ultra Rares. Collector budgets get stretched thinner with each release. Reprint waves keep undercutting scalper premiums by 20 to 30 percent. And industry estimates suggest over 80 percent of recent sales came from flippers rather than collectors—a pattern that’s now unwinding.
The one exception proving scarcity still matters? Evolving Skies. It’s out of print, and booster boxes now command $2,400 to $2,600—up 1,900 percent from retail.
The Three-Month Outlook
January and February 2026 will likely bring more pain. Post-holiday selling typically pushes prices down another 15 to 25 percent as gift recipients offload unwanted cards. The Mega Evolution: Ascended Heroes launch on January 30 will pull money toward new releases and away from existing sets.
March might bring stabilization as supply pressure eases and the market starts pricing in Pokémon’s 30th anniversary celebrations throughout 2026.
The Bottom Line for Buyers
If you’re collecting for enjoyment, current prices represent genuine value compared to a year ago. If you’re investing, be selective.
Safer bets: Vintage graded cards with low populations, truly out-of-print sealed products, and cards tied to the upcoming 30th anniversary.
Higher risk: Modern PSA 10s with populations over 1,000, raw singles from sets still in print, and anything you’re buying purely to flip.
The market is resetting to fundamentals. Patient buyers who focus on genuine scarcity rather than hype will likely come out ahead. Those chasing the next quick flip? The math has changed.
